Two months ago, I looked at Baseball Prospectus' Playoff Odds Report and how much more it tells you about where teams stand than the actual standings tell you. As I put it:

Updated daily, the BP playoff odds use projections, simulations and games already played to put together the closest picture we have to how a team's season is truly going … and where it's likely to finish. Key to the odds working: They're a dynamic document, constantly shifting and adjusting with the daily information. You can have your standings. The Playoff Odds Report tells me what's really happening.

Back then, I promised to go back and look at the playoff odds once a month to see what we've learned. Here's May's version. Today is June's. We'll be back in a month for July's. A lot can change in a month.

Teams That Are in Better Shape Than They Look in the Standings

Tampa Bay. PECOTA and Baseball Prospectus remain, doggedly, steadfastly and perhaps insanely, right there with the Rays. Even though Tampa Bay is seven games under .500 and is only one game ahead of the Angels, the odds still give them a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, better odds than, say, the Yankees or the Pirates. That's better odds, one suspects, than the Rays give themselves.

Cleveland. Sure, the Indians are in first place, but they're only two games up on the defending champion Royals and still keeping a wary eye on the Tigers and White Sox. But PECOTA says not to worry: The Indians have an 89 percent chance of reaching the playoffs, the third-highest percentage in baseball. Even better: They've got a 78.9 percent chance of winning the AL Central, the second-highest percentage in the game (behind the Cubs, of course). Forget the Cavs: Could Cleveland have two championship-level teams?

Seattle. It has been a rough month for the Mariners, with the Rangers taking off and various injuries vivisecting the rotation. But even though Seattle is only one game above .500, the playoff ddds still see them as a serious AL Wild Card contender, roughly even with Baltimore for the second Wild Card spot behind Toronto. Remember: This is now the longest playoff drought in the game. There's still hope.

Teams that are in worse shape than they look in the standings

Miami. The Marlins have been the biggest -- the only? -- National League surprise, and they're only one game out of the NL Wild Card. (Grant Brisbee of SB Nation made a solid case for them earlier this week). Remember, they're at this spot despite a rough, rough year from Giancarlo Stanton. Baseball Prospectus still only gifts them 17.8 percent odds, though, of course, as we all know, if they do sneak in the playoffs, they will win the World Series, because they are the Marlins.

Kansas City. Yep, of course. The Royals, PECOTA's sworn enemy, are only two games behind the Indians and are currently holding the second AL Wild Card spot, but the odds, as always, are skeptical. Only 25.7 percent for Kansas City to reach the playoffs, which is below Houston, for crying out loud. I have a feeling I'm going to write this exact same paragraph next month.

Colorado. Anybody else notice who's fifth in the NL Wild Card standings, only 3 1/2 games out, and just passed Pittsburgh? Yep the Rockies, who are back within two games of .500 and still hanging around. The odds report is the opposite of a believer, giving the Rox a 4.8 percent chance at the playoffs. Though all told: That's still higher than anyone would have thought for Colorado at the beginning of the season, on June 22.

"Toast" teams

I am classifying "under 5 percent" as being "toast:" If you've got 1-in-20 odds of making the playoffs, I'm considering you out. Last month there were seven teams. This month, we add three more:

Colorado: 4.8 percent
Arizona: 3.7 percent
Anaheim: 0.6 percent
Milwaukee: 0.2 percent
Oakland: 0.2 percent
San Diego: 0.1 percent
Atlanta: 0.0 percent
Cincinnati: 0.0 percent
Minnesota: 0.0 percent
Philadelphia: 0.0 percent

The Sure Things

For the purposes of this monthly exercise, we'll say that a "sure thing" is 90 percent or more.

Chicago Cubs: 99.8 percent
Washington: 93.5 percent
Texas: 90.9 percent

Of note: Both Cleveland and San Francisco are knocking on the door at 89 percent.

The NL Wild Card Race

Barring a collapse, it is looking increasingly clear that the NL already knows its three division winners. Here are the odds that the three division leaders will end up with their division title:

Chicago Cubs, NL Central: 98.6 percent
Washington, NL East: 77.2 percent
San Francisco, NL West: 59.4 percent

If it does go down that way, that makes the NL Wild Card chase a crazy mad dash. Here's where the contenders look, ranked by their odds of making the NL Wild Card Game (which does exclude the small possibilities of winning their division, which makes this an unscientific exercise, I grant you):

St. Louis: 43.5 percent
Los Angeles: 42.1 percent

NY Mets: 38.4 percent
Miami: 14.8 percent
Pittsburgh: 6.7 percent
Colorado: 3.9 percent
Arizona: 3.2 percent
Milwaukee: 0.2 percent

If the season ended today …

According to the MLB standings

AL Wild Card Game: Kansas City at Boston
ALDS: Wild Card winner at Texas
Cleveland at Baltimore

NL Wild Card Game: NY Mets at Los Angeles
NLDS: Wild Card winner at Chicago Cubs
Washington at San Francisco

According to the Playoff Odds Report

AL Wild Card Game: Baltimore at Toronto
ALDS: Wild Card winner at Texas
Boston at Cleveland

NL Wild Card Game: NY Mets at Los Angeles
NLDS: Wild Card winner at Chicago Cubs
San Francisco at Washington

You can track how the playoff ddds have fluctuated all season right here. We'll be back again in a month to see where we stand then.

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