By Cliff Corcoran
Giancarlo Stanton set the Marlins' single-season home-run record on Monday with his 43rd roundtripper of the season, besting the mark set by Gary Sheffield in 1996 (Stanton has since hit No. 44). Meanwhile, Kansas City's Mike Moustakas' next home run will tie the Royals' single-season record set by Steve "Bye-Bye" Balboni way back in 1985. A third team's mark is also being threatened this season. With that in mind, we decided to rank every team's single-season home-run record from the least likely to be broken to, well, the one that just was.
30. Giants, 73 (Barry Bonds, 2001)
29. Cardinals, 70 (Mark McGwire, 1998)
Despite the spike in home runs the past two years, no one has come close to 60 roundtrippers since Ryan Howard hit 58 in 2006. Stanton may get there this year, but it still seems very unlikely that we'll ever see another 70-homer season.
28. Cubs, 66 (Sammy Sosa, 1998)
Kris Bryant would be a candidate and he has monster power, but he has yet to reach 40 home runs in a season (he won't get there this year), never mind 60.
27. Athletics, 58 (Jimmie Foxx, 1932)
Khris Davis is on pace for 44 home runs this year, which would make this his second consecutive 40-homer season for Oakland, but he'll turn 30 this offseason, and that projected total is still 14 shy of Foxx's mark.
26. Padres, 50 (Greg Vaughn, 1998)
Petco Park isn't as crippling to power hitters as it once was, but no player in the organization seems likely to get close to 50 home runs any time soon.
25. Tigers, 58 (Hank Greenberg, 1938)
Fifty-eight is just too large a number for any of the aging Tigers veterans, and the farm system is thin. Left-field prospect Christin Stewart does have a ton of power, but the second-oldest single-season team home run mark looks safe for quite a while.
24. Phillies, 58 (Ryan Howard, 2006)
In 2016, first-base prospect Rhys Hoskins hit 38 home runs in 135 games for Double-A Reading, while right fielder Dylan Cozens set the Reading franchise record with 40 in 134 games. Cozens has taken a step back in Triple-A this year, but Hoskins is in the Majors and could be the team's first baseman going forward. The Phillies' youth, talent, and ballpark all favor some impressive home run totals to come, but 58 is just a huge number.
23. Pirates, 54 (Ralph Kiner, 1949)
PNC Park is a hard place to hit home runs. No Pirates hitter has exceeded 38 home runs in a season since it opened. Josh Bell might be the team's best young power threat, though.
22. Mariners, 56 (Ken Griffey Jr., 1997, '98)
Since Griffey and Alex Rodriguez left the team, the only Mariner to hit 40 home runs while playing with spacious Safeco Field as their home park has been Nelson Cruz. Boomstick hit 44 in 2015, 43 in 2016, and is on pace for 39 this season. He's also 37 years old and has just one more year left on his contract.
21. D-backs, 57 (Luis Gonzalez, 2001)
Paul Goldschmidt is on pace for a career-high 39 home runs this season, which is still 18 shy of Gonzo's record. Still, given Arizona's power-friendly home ballpark, Goldschmidt's all-around excellence, and third baseman Jake Lamb's comparable power, this record seems slightly less safe than those above it on this list.
20. Blue Jays, 54 (Jose Bautista, 2010)
Justin Smoak is on pace for 43 homers this season, but he's a 30-year-old having a career year. Bautista was 29 when he broke out with those 54 taters, and he never came within 10 of that total again. Josh Donaldson is on the wrong side of 30. This one looks safe.
19. Indians, 52 (Jim Thome, 2002)
Edwin Encarnacion is 34, has never hit more than 42 home runs in a season (he's on pace for 37 this year), and is the team's top power threat.
18. Rays 46 (Carlos Peña, 2007)
The Rays got big power outbursts from Logan Morrison, Corey Dickerson, and Steven Souza Jr. this year, but none is currently on pace to hit more than 37 homers. Forty-six seems like an achievable total, though.
17. Brewers, 50 (Prince Fielder, 2007)
Miller Park is a great place to hit home runs, the Brewers are on the way back up after their recent rebuild, and 50 isn't an insurmountable total, but it's hard to identify a player currently in the organization who is likely to reach it.
16. Braves, 51 (Andruw Jones, 2005)
Jones put up this total in his age-28 season after never hitting more than 36 in a season before. Freddie Freeman has seen his power numbers climb the last two years, with a career high 34 last year and a 46-homer pace per 162 games this year. He'll be 28 next season. I'm just saying there's a chance.
15. Reds, 52 (George Foster, 1977)
Joey Votto may be 33, but he's on pace for a career-high 42 home runs this season, and is such a great hitter overall that one can't discount his shot at Foster's reachable record in future campaigns.
14. Orioles, 53 (Chris Davis, 2013)
Only three teams still have their single-season home run leader on the active roster (the Jays and Marlins being the other ones). Injuries have slowed Davis this season, but he's still just 31 and the kind of erratic power threat who could hit .190 with 18 home runs one year then go deep 54 times the next. Also, don't count out a huge walk year from Manny Machado in 2018.
13. White Sox, 49 (Albert Belle, 1998)
Combine a homer-friendly ballpark with a ton of young talent and 49 doesn't look insurmountable at all. That said, we have no idea if Yoan Moncada or Eloy Jimenez will ever show that kind of in-game power in the Major Leagues, or if Matt Davidson's 40-homers-per-162-games pace this season is for real.
12. Red Sox, 54 (David Ortiz, 2006)
Rafael Devers' power potential is significant, but the Red Sox also rank this high because of the likelihood of them bringing in an established power bat from outside the organization, particularly under team president Dave Dombrowski.
11. Rangers, 57 (Alex Rodriguez, 2002)
Joey Gallo has appeared in 162 Major League games and hit 42 Major League home runs. He's just 23 and has the right kind of power in the right kind of ballpark to make 57 look like a much smaller number than it actually is.
10. Yankees, 61 (Roger Maris, 1961)
Aaron Judge is still on pace for a rookie-record 50 home runs this season, and he's still adjusting to the league. In two years, he'll be 27 and still hitting in one of the most homer-friendly ballparks in baseball. Sixty-two is not beyond his reach.
9. Twins, 49 (Harmon Killebrew, 1964, '69)
Miguel Sano has 50-homer power, but then so did "Killer."
8. Rockies, 49 (Larry Walker, 1997; Todd Helton, 2001)
Nolan Arenado surpassed 40 home runs in each of the last two seasons, and while he'll likely fall short of that mark this year, he's under team control for two more seasons.
7. Mets, 41 (Todd Hundley, 1996; Carlos Beltran, 2006)
Michael Conforto has been homering at a pace of 42 per 162 games this season. It might be too much to expect Yoenis Cespedes, who will turn 32 in October, to stay healthy for a full season, but Conforto is young enough and good enough to take a real run at this mark.
6. Astros, 47 (Jeff Bagwell, 2000)
George Springer looks like he'll fall about 10 homers short of Bagwell's record this year, but he's 27 and has three years of team control remaining. It is within his reach.
5. Nationals, 46 (Alfonso Soriano, 2006)
Bryce Harper led the NL with 42 home runs in 2015 and looked like he was going to threaten Soriano's record again this year before slipping on a wet base and landing on the disabled list. He'll get one more crack at it next year before free agency comes calling.
4. Angels, 47 (Troy Glaus, 2000)
Mike Trout's career-high remains the 41 home runs he hit in 2015, but he was on a 49-homer pace in late May before suffering a thumb injury which cost him 39 games. With three years left on his Angels contract, and a far better medical history than Harper, it would be a bit of a shock if Trout doesn't eclipse Glaus before leaving Anaheim.
3. Dodgers, 49 (Shawn Green, 2001)
Cody Bellinger's pace has slowed a bit of late, putting him on pace for 46 home runs on the season. It's important to remember, however, that he's a 22-year-old rookie who wasn't called up until the 21st game of the season. If he doesn't get hot and break this record this year, there's still an excellent chance that he will do so in one of his six remaining team-controlled years in L.A.
2. Royals, 36 (Steve Balboni, 1985)
With Moustakas at 35 on the season, Balboni's 36, by far the lowest single-season franchise home-run record on the books, is a lame duck. Make that a dead duck. Moose isn't just going to break Balboni's record, he's on pace to crush it with 47 home runs. And the record could stand for a long time.
1. Marlins, 44 (Giancarlo Stanton, 2017)
Every home run Stanton hits for the remainder of the season will set a new team record. Thanks to his recent outburst, he's on pace for an even 60 this season. Yet, no matter how many he hits, his continued presence on the team will keep the Marlins' single-season home-run record among the most endangered in the game.
Cliff Corcoran is a Sports on Earth contributor and a regular guest analyst on the MLB Network. An editor or contributor to 13 books about baseball, including seven Baseball Prospectus annuals, he spent the last 10 seasons covering baseball for SI.com and has also written for USA Today and SB Nation, among others.