With a 23-20 win over the Bengals on Monday, the Steelers all but locked up an AFC North championship. They join the Patriots, Eagles and Vikings as teams that would only lose their division in the event of an asteroid hitting the earth. That gives us an idea of four teams that will get at least one home game in the playoffs.

What about the other half of the division champs? Those are all very much still up in the air.

With four games left to go in the season, there are four games this weekend that will have huge implications in the division races to come. Teams could swing things considerably in their favor or drop back to even money depending on the results of Week 14. There are some signs that should point toward four teams as division champions, leaving the others fighting for Wild Card opportunities instead.

NFC West

Contenders:
Los Angeles Rams, 9-3
Seattle Seahawks, 8-4

Most important games left:
Eagles at Rams, Week 14
Rams at Seahawks, Week 15

The Rams are hoping to win their first division title since 2003, while the Seahawks are trying to capture their fifth NFC West crown under Pete Carroll. Los Angeles holds a one-game lead with four games left, but Seattle holds a slight but key advantage down the stretch: It already beat the Rams in L.A.

If the Seahawks win their rematch against the Rams at home, they'll have swept their division rivals, meaning that if they have the same record by the end of the season, Seattle gets the West. If the Rams win the rematch -- they have lost 11 of their past 12 games in Seattle -- and both teams finish with identical records, the Seahawks could still take the division. First, the Rams need to beat the Seahawks in Seattle for just the second time since 2005. If they can't, then they need to hope that the Seahawks lose to the Cardinals and/or Jaguars and/or Cowboys while beating the Eagles and/or 49ers and/or Titans.

If the Seahawks beat the Jags this weekend and the Rams lose to the Eagles, Seattle's odds of winning the division would stand at 75 percent, per FiveThirtyEight. If those results are flipped, the Rams would be at 85 percent. A lot is dependent on Week 14, but their Week 15 game could be a de facto NFC West championship game. It's in Seattle, so I'm giving the Seahawks and their playoff race experience a slight edge.

The Pick: Seahawks, with 51 percent certainty

NFC South

Contenders:
New Orleans Saints, 9-3
Carolina Panthers, 8-4
Atlanta Falcons, 7-5

Most important games left:
Saints at Falcons, Week 14
Vikings at Panthers, Week 14
Falcons at Saints, Week 16
Panthers at Falcons, Week 17

New Orleans has a strong grip on the division right now, but two teams in the division still have an opportunity to take the NFC South from them. It may be a stretch, but given that Atlanta's schedule includes three of four games against the Saints and Panthers, it's not too late for Dan Quinn to have his team return to first place. However, the Falcons have run out of second chances should they slip up again.

The Falcons host the Saints on Thursday, and if they win they'll be one game back of New Orleans with another game against Drew Brees left to go. If the Falcons win and the Panthers lose, Carolina's odds of winning the division drop to about 5 percent. If the Saints win and the Panthers lose, New Orleans will be your NFC South champions, barring a miracle.

Because they have so much going in their favor right now, including their current lead in the standings, two games left at home, games against the Jets and Bucs and a chance to put away the field with a win this weekend, it's almost certainly going to be the Saints winning the division and probably getting a bye week in the playoffs. The Falcons likely need to win out, while the Panthers already got swept by New Orleans and have a tough game this weekend against Minnesota.

The Pick: Saints, with 90 percent certainty.

AFC West

Contenders:
Kansas City Chiefs, 6-6
Los Angeles Chargers, 6-6
Oakland Raiders, 6-6

Most important games left:
Raiders at Chiefs, Week 14
Chargers at Chiefs, Week 15
Raiders at Eagles, Week 16
Raiders at Chargers, Week 17

Somehow, it's far more surprising that Oakland is still alive for the AFC West division than it is to see the Chargers in a three-way tie for first, despite Los Angeles' 0-4 start. The Raiders are the reigning division champs, but their defense is so awful (opposing QBs have 20 touchdowns and one interception against Oakland) that their rebound from a 2-4 start to getting back to .500 was a little more unexpected. Adding to the Raiders' issues is that Derek Carr has yet to live up to being the quarterback he is getting paid to be, Amari Cooper has been plagued by drops and injuries and Oakland plays three of its final four games on the road in tough environments.

FiveThirtyEight has the Raiders at 15 percent to win the division, and that seems generous. This race comes down to the Chiefs and Chargers.

The Chargers have all the momentum, having won six of their past eight games, while the Chiefs have lost six of their past seven. But we can't underrate the importance of Kansas City's schedule, as its next three games come at home and the fourth is against the 3-9 Broncos in Denver. If the Chiefs take care of business against the Raiders, Chargers and Dolphins, they'll be a playoffs team and their slump will be all but forgiven. As bad as losing is, five of those six losses came by seven points or less. Kansas City is bad right now, but it's still decent at home.

The Chargers have lost seven straight games to the Chiefs, including the last three in Kansas City. That home-field advantage should be just enough to save Andy Reid's job … at least until January.

The Pick: Chiefs, with 50 percent certainty. Call it 45 percent for the Chargers and 5 percent for the Raiders.

AFC South

Contenders:
Tennessee Titans, 8-4
Jacksonville Jaguars, 8-4

Most important games left:
Jaguars at Titans, Week 17

Changes could happen between now and Week 17, but there's still a good chance that the rematch between these two teams in Tennessee will be for the AFC South title. The Jaguars will likely be favored in their next three games, as they are three-point favorites against Seattle this Sunday and then host the Texans before traveling to San Francisco. The Titans are three-point favorites against the Cardinals, then travel to San Francisco before hosting the Rams. So they might have the same record in Week 17 or may be separated by just one game. Who is most likely to win that game?

Tennessee won the first contest, 37-16, but a lot has changed for Jacksonville since then. The Jags now lead the NFL in scoring and total defense, holding six opponents to nine points or less. They've won five of their past six games and sport the best defense in football thanks to their excellent cornerback duo, elite defensive line and better-than-average linebackers. The Titans have won six of their past seven games with a more balanced approach, though they also seem more beatable because of it.

Blake Bortles has played poorly, and yet his touchdown-to-interception ratio is 14:8, compared to 10:12 for Marcus Mariota.

It will be hard for the Titans to beat the Jaguars twice this season. Jacksonville's elite defense may just be good enough to get a win over any team.

The Pick: Jaguars, with 55 percent certainty