Thirteen departing free agents received qualifying offers from their former teams this offseason, a somewhat smaller number than was expected in the days leading up to the deadline. Qualifying offers are relatively new to MLB, appearing for the first time last offseason as part of the most recent Collective Bargaining Agreement. Teams can offer their free agents -- as long as they were with the team all year, so no midseason trades here -- a one-year deal worth $14.1 million.

If a player accepts, he returns to the team on that deal; if he declines, he goes off into the market, with the new team understanding that they'll need to give up their top draft pick to sign him. (Unless the new team has a pick in the top ten, in which case it is protected and they give up their second pick.) Players must decide by 5 p.m. Eastern on Monday.

Last year, nine free agents received an offer, and not a single one accepted it. We'll take a look at each of the thirteen free agents who received a qualifying offer and analyze what the market is for them with draft pick compensation attached, along with whether or not they should -- and will -- accept the offer or decline it.

Robinson Cano - 2B, New York Yankees

The Yankees extending Cano a qualifying offer was the most foregone conclusion of the entire offseason to date. Now, the most foregone conclusion of the offseason is him declining it by week's end. Cano is looking to land an outrageous deal in the quarter-billion dollar range that will keep him locked up through his late thirties, so it's not worth serious consideration whether or not he'll be back on a one-year, $14.1 million bid. None of the teams with the financial means to afford Cano's price tag -- the Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs and Tigers would seem to be the theoretical top four, with the Nationals having a paper need but probably not the payroll space to bring Cano on board -- are likely to care too much about the draft pick cost if they jump into the Cano bidding.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Hiroki Kuroda - SP, New York Yankees

There is nothing more a good portion of the Yankees' fanbase would like than for Hiroki Kuroda to accept the one-year, $14.1 million qualifying offer and return for another season. After all, Kuroda was one of the very few bright points in last year's forgettable campaign in the Bronx and his 421 innings of 3.31 ERA ball in two seasons for the Yankees have made him one of New York's better free agency pickups in recent memory. Kuroda did not accept the qualifying offer made to him last year by the Yankees, however, and taking the offer this year would represent almost a $1 million paycut on his $15 million salary for 2013.

Kuroda has publically speculated about retiring or returning to Japan to pitch out the end of his career, which may both be true and be a way of leveraging his position with the Yankees into a higher value one-year deal for 2014. Either way, it's unlikely that he accepts the qualifying offer, but also unlikely that someone's willing to pay more for his services than New York is in 2014 and give up a draft pick in the process.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Curtis Granderson - LF/CF, New York Yankees

Granderson is the most likely of the Yankees receiving qualifying offers to accept, and his agent even stated they were considering exactly that. Granderson missed most of 2013 with hand and wrist injuries sustained from being hit by pitches, and his status behind Shin-Soo Choo and Jacoby Ellsbury in the public eye as the third big "name" outfielder on the market -- perhaps even fourth, with Carlos Beltran's availability -- could convince him that the possibility of a big money deal is remote enough that he should rebuild value in 2014, get paid a whole lot of money to do so, and try again in 2015.

If Granderson does hit the open market even with a draft pick qualifier, Granderson -- who would likely require a shorter contract to sign than Ellsbury and Choo -- could be a pretty big hit among teams whose first-round picks are protected. Considering Yankees' budgetary planning and likely focus on Cano and Kuroda, Granderson may be the odd man out in New York.

Likely to accept the QO: Maybe

Likely to return if not: No

Mike Napoli - 1B, Boston Red Sox

When Napoli came to the Red Sox last offseason, he originally signed a three-year deal with the team, which was abandoned and reworked into a one-year deal with Boston after medical reports on Napoli's hip came back with extreme concerns. Despite a fairly healthy season in Boston, none of that concern has really changed, and considering Napoli's enthusiasm for joining the Red Sox in the first place has merely been stoked by the team's World Series win during his first season in Fenway, there's little chance he lands elsewhere this offseason. Napoli accepting the offer and then the team working out some sort of two-year deal to replace the QO if his medicals come back clean should be the most likely outcome.

Likely to accept the QO: Yes

Stephen Drew - SS, Boston Red Sox

Drew is probably in the same place Adam LaRoche found himself last year, which is that while he'd be a pretty tempting target without a draft pick tender on him, the presence of that will hurt his value to any team that isn't the Red Sox. Adding to that is that despite being a left-handed hitter, Drew had frankly scary home/away splits (.859 OPS at home, .687 on the road) and platoon splits (.876 OPS vs RHP, .585 OPS vs LHP) that should spook anyone from reasonably surrendering even a second round pick for Drew.

Unless a team like the Mariners decides the best way back to respectability is to light the second through fourth rounds of their 2014 draft on fire and signs Drew on the back end of a binge involving, say, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ubaldo Jimenez (a scenario that has severe plausibility issues), it's hard to see Drew back anywhere but in Boston next season. Still, it's not like LaRoche was precisely punished for declining his qualifying offer by Washington, receiving a three-year, $37 million contract with at least $22 million of that money guaranteed -- one would expect Drew will at least test the market.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Jacoby Ellsbury - CF, Boston Red Sox

Ellsbury is in the same position Cano is -- Boston's extension of a qualifying offer to the young center fielder was a strictly pro forma move, as Ellsbury is a high enough quality free agent to net the Red Sox a compensatory pick in the supplemental rounds when he signs elsewhere, and he almost certainly will sign elsewhere. Ellsbury's likely landing spots include Seattle and Philadelphia, whose first round picks are protected. The Chicago Cubs also have a protected first round pick and are currently home to the executives who drafted Ellsbury, but considering their internal situation at the position would have to be considered a dark horse in the race. Either way, he'll be somewhere other than Boston in 2014.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: No

Ubaldo Jimenez - SP, Cleveland Indians

Jimenez is the youngest of the three starting pitchers who were extended qualifying offers this offseason (2013 was Jimenez's age-29 season, while Ervin Santana was 30 and Kuroda was 38), and he had by far the most effective season of his career since 2010, when he placed third in voting for the NL Cy Young Award. In fact, both he and Santana had very similar seasons in terms of results, though Santana worked a good thirty or so innings more than Jimenez did (3.30 ERA in 182.2 IP for Jimenez, 3.24 ERA in 211 IP for Santana). And like Santana, it's probably smart to assume Jimenez will be headed right back to the team that made him a qualifying offer.

The only team in baseball that is so pitching-starved that it might be willing to give up a draft pick for a guy who is known for his problems with repeating mechanics and inconsistency on the mound is the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, and if they want to blow money on a starting pitcher in this market they can sign anyone from Matt Garza to A.J. Burnett to Ricky Nolasco without giving up a draft pick for the privilege.

Likely to accept the QO: Yes

Ervin Santana - SP, Kansas City Royals

While Santana's 2013 looks a lot like Jimenez's on the surface (except, of course, for the difference in innings thrown), there's a world of difference between the market interest in Jimenez and Santana, mostly because teams aren't fooled too much by shiny single-season ERA in walk years, and Santana only had one bad season to make good on in 2013 instead of two. Still, while Santana's value is likely higher than Jimenez's on the open market, it remains the highest in Kansas City. While Santana should decline the qualifying offer and start looking around to see what he can get in free agency, his most fervent suitor -- and one that will likely have little compunction about offering him a nice multi-year deal -- will be the club that doesn't have to surrender a draft pick for the privilege.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Nelson Cruz - RF, Texas Rangers

It's a bit of a mystery why Nelson Cruz even in a position to get a qualifying offer in the first place -- a no-defense right fielder with one tool (power) coming off a 50-game steroids suspension should be in the same boat as Melky Cabrera was last season, not Shin-Soo Choo this offseason. And that's before even touching the Texas front office's claims that they're willing to get into bidding wars over Cruz -- and only Cruz. That said, the Philadelphia Phillies have included Cruz in their list of outfielders to look at (also included: every other big name outfielder), so it's not like the move doesn't have any savvy to it. Despite how lucky Cruz is to be in this position in the first place, his smartest play is likely to turn down the qualifying offer and play Texas and Philadelphia against each other for a modest raise in years or dollars from the Rangers.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Kendrys Morales - 1B/DH, Seattle Mariners

Another case where a guy who should be thanking the stars he got offered $14.1 million total value on a contract is likely going to decline it and somehow walk away with even more money in the exchange. The Mariners have made no secret that they want Morales to return, but apparently are betting that since Morales's agent is Scott Boras, Morales will decline the offer, test free agency, find nothing there considering the draft pick price tag, and come crawling back to settle for a lesser amount.

This could very well happen, but it's more likely, I think, that Boras manages to make good on his advice to Morales and get a better deal somewhere else in dollar terms, even if it is only a modest raise like he secured for Kyle Lohse. That's sort of what Scott Boras does. Not that the Mariners will complain, considering the supplemental round draft pick they'll receive when it happens. The worst possible scenario, of course, would be for the Mariners' other plans for the 1B/DH role to fall apart -- and find themselves bidding to give Morales a 2-year, $23 million dollar deal or some-such.

Likely to accept the QO: No

Likely to return if not: No

Brian McCann - C, Atlanta Braves

McCann sits in the Ellsbury/Cano camp of guys who will clearly not be picking up their qualifying offers. McCann's is more of a deterrent than an insurance policy, however, because the Braves want him back and should have the payroll space to bring him back without much of a problem, especially if they find some way to dump the Dan Uggla contract. Not only is McCann a core part of the team's locker room, but as far as continuity at the position goes moving forward, Evan Gattis is not a long-term solution at the position and the team's heir apparent, prospect catcher Christian Bethancourt, is great defensively but only managed a .305 OBP in his second year at the AA level. Competition for McCann's services could be fierce, and every little bit of leverage Atlanta can get will help -- especially leverage that doesn't cost them anything, like the qualifying offer.

Likely to accept QO: No

Likely to return if not: Yes

Shin-Soo Choo - CF/RF, Cincinnati Reds

Choo also will not be picking up his qualifying offer, but unlike McCann, whom the Braves are expected to make an active push to keep, the Reds will likely allow Choo to walk and either test Billy Hamilton in center field or make some transitional signing at the position. Choo is expected to command a free agent deal that will pay him even higher per year than the $14.1 million qualifying offer would, and that would be double what the Reds paid him to play center field for them this season. A number of teams, including Detroit and Philadelphia, could stomach a draft pick hit to pick him up if they so desired.

Likely to accept QO: No

Likely to return if not: No

Carlos Beltran - RF, St. Louis Cardinals

Beltran would seem to be at an age and a production level where he would take the qualifying offer as a matter of course. Generally, there shouldn't be too much interest in burning a draft pick to acquire a hitter coming up on forty with little to no defensive value remaining outside the strength of his arm. This is Carlos Beltran, however: best postseason hitter ever, probable Hall of Famer, so on and so forth. The usual suspects in old or defensively-challenged outfielders -- Detroit, Philadelphia, even the Yankees -- could be willing to kick a draft pick down a hole in order to get him in their lineup, though one would hope only on a year-by-year basis. It's certainly reasonable for the Cardinals to extend the qualifying offer, given that it represents a raise for Beltran as well. I think all things considered, it's reasonable to expect Beltran to accept the QO, especially if he wants to continue chasing a ring.

Likely to accept QO: Yes